Weekly Security Update for 19th July 2012

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By Gary Sandiford, Olive Group‘s Dubai-based assessments manager. Olive Group is a leading provider of security and technology solutions and has operated continuously in Iraq since 2003.
Overview
Olive Groups Iraq statistics are drawn from multiple sources, including media reporting and direct liaison with in country assets. Included within the statistics are a minority sub-set of serious incidents which may not be purely attributable to insurgent/terrorist groups, such as murder, kidnappings and organised crime activities. In many cases, these serious crimes are related to sectarian or ethnic tensions or threat financing for militant groups.
The total reported incidents in Iraq for this week is 101. This is lower than last week’s figure of 119. The weekly average for 2012 including this week’s data, now stands at 104 incidents per week. The country experienced a quieter week following the major bombings that targeted Shia pilgrims during the Shabaniya festival.
Looking forward, a number of incidents this week build on the case that intra-Shia violence is slowly increasing in Baghdad as Moqtada al-Sadr’s followers vie with Sadrist rivals Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) for local supremacy. Additionally, official reporting suggests that Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) plan to conduct a nationwide attack and a general surge in operations to coincide with the beginning of Ramadan.